Cassandra writes...

Trains in the south-west of England will run at 40 mph (where the line speed is 85mph) for several miles as the clay soil had dried to such an extent that it is no longer stable. What a mercy that the decision was not taken by the police, always keen to close a road for several hours after an RTA, for had it been so trains would not have been permitted to run at all. Trains in Scotland didn't run at all on 4 August because of exceptionally high winds. Trains throughout the country will run more slowly in October and November because leaves falling onto the line will result in black-ice-like adhesion problems. And lest non-railway transport should be forgotten it's worth remembering that road bridges in Scotland were closed, or open only to cars, when those high winds blew, also disrupting ferry services.

Scotland has always been a windy place, and one not without the occasional rainy day, but it's clear that the climate is changing in ways that produce new and seemingly intransigent problems for transport and its infrastructure: Cassandra is not alone in observing this. And Cassandra does not for one moment believe that the folk who look after the infrastructure don't know perfectly well what is happening, and - much more important - know what ought to be done as things gradually become more troublesome.

Victorian infrastructure has either stood the test of time or it has been replaced by something better. Bridges and tunnels don't last for ever and are monitored regularly. Cuttings and embankments, open to the elements as tunnels are not, deteriorate more quickly as hotter summers both dry the soil and encourage vigorous tree growth; heavier rainfall weakens already dry soil and gives the trees even more encouragement.

Cassandra knows that the railway industry knows all this, and that there are plans to deal with what is needed to keep the trains running safely. But she is alarmed that there is no discussion in the public arena about what will be needed, and what it is likely to cost - both in money terms and in the inevitable disruption to services. Cassandra remembers the economic cost to the Devon and Cornwall economy when a severe storm breached the line at Dawlish; Cassandra fears that the next couple of decades will produce more, and more severe, similar occurrences.

RAIL 1042 contains a couple of articles which illustrate the problem. c2c, which serves South Essex, is also suffering from dry clay and has also introduced a reduced timetable. Operators across Britain are concerned about excess lineside vegetation. One driver says that a serious accident is "waiting to happen"; Network Rail is accused of "losing control of its estate". And yet, in an article celebrating the new East West railway connecting Oxford to Bletchley (and ultimately Cambridge), the environment and sustainability team boasts that "over 400,000 trees have been planted". Lest any optimist hope that they have been planted at least 100m from the rails there is a picture showing the nearest to be only 10m away.

In the meantime Cassandra repeats herself. Trees are very thirsty: a mature oak needs 300 litres of water a day, so cut down the trees, also ameliorating autumn leaf-fall. Plant twice as many well away from the railway. It's a win-win policy: fewer trees causing damage; more trees elsewhere; lots of employment.